THE UNEDITED

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I predict Hillary Clinton will become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee at the July 2020 DNC convention. However, Trump will ultimately win re-election in November.

            The most important thing to know when analyzing national elections in the United States is that there is an “establishment” wing of the Democratic Party and a “grassroots” wing. This dichotomy is true of the Republican Party as well. The generally successful strategy for candidates is to hold extreme policy positions during the primary season to generate grassroots support, then shift to a moderate policy platform in the general election to attract independent voters. Candidates have to appear credible to both constituencies (establishment and grassroots) while managing the policy shift from extreme-to-moderate.

The candidates

Elizabeth Warren had a dramatic surge in the polls during the Fall of 2019. She was drawing crowds of over 10,000 people to her campaign events. Warren’s main platform is economic populism, which she articulates very well and which resonates powerfully with the Democratic base. The problem? Elizabeth Warren’s brand of economic populism does not resonate with the Party’s donor class, the “establishment”. Even as her popularity surged among the party’s base, the large donors and corporate elite, who would not benefit under Warren’s policies, withheld support. Warren lost momentum and she has fallen in the polls ever since.

            Bernie Sanders has had a consistently popular democratic socialist platform and his poll numbers are challenging the frontrunner, Joe Biden. Bernie does not have the support of the donor class, but unlike Warren, he does not need it. In the last 3 months of 2019, Bernie Sanders raised $34 million from 1.8 million donations, with the average donation being $18. The donor class does not like his anti-capital positions and many in the Democratic Party do not believe (perhaps mistakenly) that he can win in the general election due to his democratic socialist platform. Most importantly, Sanders is 78 years old, and his health is an issue - he had a heart attack on October 1, 2019.

Joe Biden is often considered the perfect candidate. He is beloved by the grassroots for his “folksy” manner and by the donor class alike. He has a long political history and is therefore a predictable choice for the establishment. However, his cognitive abilities have severely deteriorated. He has clear neurological problems and is struggling. It really begs the question, why is the Democratic Party running a 77 year old man with clear cognitive impairments as its frontrunner? More on this later.

            The other candidates are interesting but not likely to gain meaningful traction. Bloomberg is notable for his business prowess and deep financial reserves and relationships. However, after spending $300 million on advertising, his poll numbers barely improved. He simply does not have the charisma to run a successful national campaign. Some analysts have surmised that he is running to insert Gun Control more prominently into the national debate. Regardless, for our purposes, he is not relevant. If he pre-announces a vice presidential running mate with charisma, he could possibly create a compelling candidacy.

Buttigieg is well-liked among the younger generation of the donor class (Silicon Valley) but he struggles with the base. He has a peculiar establishment background (Harvard, naval intelligence, Mckinsey, etc.) and his father founded the International Gramsci Society. It is an interesting plot line and could gain traction given his powerful allies, but probably not relevant to the final election outcome. Tulsi Gabbard is notable as a veteran and for her anti-war platform which resonates with the base, but the establishment is adamantly against her platform and independent streak. Andrew Yang is a highly intelligent and independent candidate, which is interesting in terms of what his candidacy says about the base, but he is most likely irrelevant for the 2020 final outcome.

“Super Delegates”

The Democratic Party has a primary system that includes “super delegates”. Voters in the Democratic primaries cast their vote at polling locations throughout their state. The state Democratic Party then awards state delegates to the candidates proportionally, according to how many votes they received. The state Party sends those delegates to the national Democratic Party convention where they are “pledged” to vote according to the state vote tallies for each candidate. Super delegates also represent the state at the national convention but they are unpledged delegates, i.e. not bound by the results of the state’s primary voting. Super delegates can vote for any candidate they choose at the national convention.

For instance, in the 2016 Iowa caucuses, 704 local delegates (representing primary voters at the state level) voted for Hillary Clinton while 700 local delegates voted for Bernie Sanders. This resulted in Clinton having 23 pledged state delegates from Iowa for the DNC national convention and Bernie Sanders having 21 pledged delegates. However, 6 “super delegates” sided with Clinton giving her a total of 29 delegates from Iowa for the national convention. In 2016, 85 percent of super delegates supported Hillary Clinton.

In 2016, Debbie Wasserman Schultzs, chair of the Democratic National Committee (the governing organization of the Democratic Party), actually stated in an interview, “Unpledged delegates exist to make sure that party leaders and elected officials don't have to be in a position where they are running against grassroots activists.” Due to broad anger in the Democratic Party’s base about what was perceived as a bias in the establishment’s favor, the Party changed the rules such that super delegates only come into play if the national convention becomes a “brokered convention”.

A “brokered convention”

A “brokered convention” simply means that if no candidate has a clear majority of votes after the first ballot at the DNC national convention in July, there is a second round of voting. For a candidate to win the Democratic Party nomination during the first round of voting, they have to receive 1,919 delegate votes. With at least three strong contenders (Biden, Sanders, Warren) and others rising, there is a real possibility of no candidate receiving that minimum number of delegates.

After heavy criticism over the role of super delegates in the 2016 election, the DNC changed its rules in 2018 such that super delegates can only play a role in a second round of voting at the national convention. So conceivably, no current candidate wins on the first round of voting. At that point, it becomes a brokered convention, and all delegates that were previously pledged to one candidate are “released” and can vote for whomever they choose. In the second round of voting, an entirely new candidate can enter the race.

Such an unstable scenario allows Hillary Clinton to enter the field as a “savior” from the chaos. Hillary still has a strong grip on the DNC and is actively participating in meetings, according to sources that have been on DNC conference calls. Tulsi Gabbard called this out in October, “From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a campaign to destroy my reputation. We wondered who was behind it, and now we know… I challenge her [Clinton] to come out from behind her proxies and powerful allies in the corporate media, and face me directly.” Hillary Clinton went so far as to state that Russia is “grooming” Gabbard as a third party candidate and said, “She [Tulsi] is the favorite of the Russians.” More recently, Hillary Clinton has been attacking Bernie Sanders in the press. So Clinton has been shaping the race from the beginning.

The benefit of a brokered convention for Hillary Clinton is that it looks organic and she can avoid the accusation of 2016 - that she rigged the nomination process against Bernie Sanders. Also, if nominated in July, her candidacy would be only 3 months long. Much of the negative press that plagued her public life would not have sufficient time to gather speed. Also, such a short period would be much easier on her health which was called into question during the 2016 race.

The fact that the Democratic Party and its media allies continue to push Biden as the frontrunner is conspicuous. It is an interesting question as to whether Biden was placed in the primaries intentionally to split the vote and allow for a brokered convention. Hillary understands how unpopular she is among American voters and by having Biden represent the establishment throughout the primaries, she keeps Bernie Sanders from getting the required 1,919 delegates at the convention and effectively bypasses all of the drama and close examination of the primary season.

The Clinton strategy

            Hillary Clinton will use the next 6 months to shape her image as someone who can act as a “savior” from the chaos and beat Donald Trump. The line will be, “you may not like me, but I’m effective”. Her DNC and media allies will be pushing a message of “anyone but Trump”.

        For her savior image to work, she will need a voting base that is (a) destabilized via the brokered convention and (b) desperate for a savior that can defeat Trump. Over the next months, she will try to avoid the appearance that she is preparing to enter the race at the convention, but it will be difficult. She will also try to balance support for the frontrunners (currently Biden, Sanders, Warren), using her corporate media allies, so that no candidate gets a majority at the convention in July. That will primarily entail her and her allies attacking Bernie Sanders who is the clear frontrunner for grassroots voters.

Then, if Hillary Clinton becomes the candidate in July, she will utilize her allies in the mainstream press to keep the attention on Trump. The mainstream media is already a massive echo chamber with 93% of news being negative toward Trump. Hillary will run on an “anything but Trump” platform and will limit the news flow about herself or her campaign. She will utilize her allies in Silicon Valley and the mainstream press to actively shape the news flow.

There is a new documentary coming out about Hillary Clinton in March, and the first look reveals an honest message of “yes, I am a divisive leader, and I know it’s hard to like me”. So in this first stage, she will acknowledge the problems of her past candidacy and public life. In the next stage, that vulnerability and honest assessment will be followed with a “So what? The Party is in disarray and it needs me.” The tone and presence of her “stealth” candidacy will become more strong and ruthless as we approach the July convention. Her strategic goal is for strength to be more important than likability at the convention.

The prediction

I predict that Hillary Clinton will become the Democratic nominee, but Trump will win again in the November 2020 election. The support among his base has only increased since 2016. Tens of thousands of voters are still flocking to his rallies, sometimes waiting 20 hours in freezing temperatures to get inside.

The attacks on him so far have been unsuccessful. “Russia Gate” - accusations that Trump colluded with Russia to win the 2016 election - led nowhere. In the wake of the November impeachment hearings over dealings with Ukraine, Trump’s approval numbers actually increased. The public’s reaction to the impeachment was largely indifference, despite the mainstream press and Democratic leadership trumpeting that “the fate of our democracy hinges on this moment”. Currently, the Senate is holding a trial after receiving articles of impeachment from the House of Representatives. Trump’s approval rating rose 3 points during the trial’s first week.

            The US public is experiencing “Trump fatigue” and shrugs off every controversy the Democratic party tries to pin on Trump. The establishment wing/ Clinton team would like to believe that 2020 is different, but the public will simply see a Clinton versus Trump matchup in the exact same light as 2016. In addition, Bernie Sanders supporters will be even more enraged in 2020 and even less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton in November.

How Trump could lose

There is one main scenario where Trump loses and that is if the United States enters recession prior to the election in 2020. That currently appears unlikely, although there are signs that we are nearing the end of this business cycle. For instance, the unemployment rate is at a record low. We have a robust economy with no slack in the labor market. At the same time, consumer debt defaults are rising. Historically, there is a significant lead time from when consumer defaults start rising and the unemployment rate turns up again leading into a recession so it appears unlikely in 2020.

            The economic environment seems similar to the wage-push inflationary environment of the mid-1960s. Inflation was just starting to pick up, but no one knew it or felt it. Trump voters may be losing ground due to this burgeoning inflationary environment, but they don’t recognize it. Inflation starts out as a stealth problem. Ironically, that is helpful for Trump who only needs voters to feel good for the next 10 months.

            There will be other attempts to stop Trump - accusations of sexual misconduct, corrupt business dealings, abuse of executive power - but none of these have worked so far. If Trump’s actions in Ukraine and Iran are any indication, he has so far been effective at thwarting geopolitical sabotage efforts (i.e. Kerry back-channeling with Iran).

            There is one other outlier that has to be considered. Voter fraud and outright election fraud are very real problems. Consider the fact that some California counties reported more votes than there are registered voters. So Trump could be defeated with an orchestrated and targeted Election Fraud strategy - whether via the electronic voting machines or through actual physical voting. In several key swing states, he only won by several thousand votes so it is a real possibility. There is also the impact of Silicon Valley’s grip on social media. The prominent research psychologist Dr. Robert Epstein has estimated that Google was able to shift between 3 and 10 million votes to Hillary Clinton during the 2016 election via manipulating search results.

The fight for the American Empire

            There is a loose constellation of corporate and political interest groups that protect the American Empire’s structure, which allows for leveraging American financial and military power globally to establish advantageous trade regimes and political unions. This worked for awhile, but now the American public can no longer bear the burden of the Empire.

      In the course of setting up and defending this structure, many “globalist” agents set up what are essentially toll booths along the frontier of the empire. If foreign partners want into the imperial core, or internal actors want outside, they have to pay the toll to these globalist operatives. Over time, the loyalty of these operatives to the United States has come into question. Trump is part of a group that is loyal to the United States and trying to rebalance the American Empire. These “toll keepers” are not happy about it.

         For instance, he boasts of Saudi Arabia paying $1 Billion for more troops. He wants countries to pay to host American troops and bases. He wants NATO members to pay more. He wants to renegotiate trade agreements. He wants Europe to buy American energy. Every foreign policy initiative by Trump can be reduced to this rebalancing effort.

The American public doesn’t fully understand this strategic shift, but they intuitively grasp that Trump is trying to do something different than the “globalist” status quo and so they vote for him, even if they don’t like him as a person. There are many different “deep states” and “globalists” in the US. Trump represents a nationalist brand with its own military, intelligence, corporate and financial assets. The group working with Trump has no choice but to exercise all available resources to ensure he wins the 2020 election.

In January 2016, I predicted that Trump would win because he presented the most compelling case for rebalancing the American Empire. I predict he will win again.

Sunday May 30th on a train to Zurich

I spent a weekend in Milan, since the life in Zurich is astoundingly lonely. The fashionable ladies I used to attend are now deceased. I cannot even trace the burial of many of them. I recollect few faces, sometimes by strolling alone around the town and spotting the name of a friend on a street placard. Most of them called writers, artists, painters or even philanthropists. They looked to me all the same, untalented privileged people who enjoyed my entertaining conversation. They perhaps also felt guilty for the sums lavishly employed by their husbands to compliment them with expensive jewelry and cars. Not really seriously, they would have otherwise financed my revolutionary purposes or I should have not accepted the Kaiser’s support to come back to Russia.

Someone told me that in Milan I would have more easily found the understanding of the local authorities, they would have allowed me to openly proclaim the revolution in exchange of that few thousands of francs needed to find an accommodation. I am not impressed by the XXI century figures. I used to spend the same amounts, back in 1917, without taking in account the inflation that occurred along the years. I always had an elegant taste, the finest among my revolutionary circle, and it was really expensive to satisfy it. I did not even consider a compromise the idea to mix up with the so hatred bourgeoisie. In the end that is my milieu and I would not find myself so much at easy with the lowest social classes. That is perhaps the reason why I never totally trusted Stalin. He was such a plebeian, someone who had to become a seminarist in order to get some free education. Not even of the best level. Stalin was however brilliant, I am collecting more information about his extraordinary success and I would have had no doubt. He had the instinct of a killer, he was ruthless, he had all the energy to achieve the greatest goals. I felt the same when I spoke in front of the people, when I had to fight against the other members of the central committee. When I was alone, and had to meditate about the revolution, I most of the time enjoyed a cup of tea with honey and milk. As well as some pastries.

Sunday May 30th A train from Milan to Frankfurt

What a busy days I had in Milan, and I still need to go back to Frankfurt by train because of a really needed stop in Basel. I am feeling art fairs fatigue, but how else could I get acquainted to new customers? There are some fashionable social networks, but the more exclusive they pretend to be, the higher is the chance to meet up with fake profiles. They just pretend to have money to spend or be interested in my field of business, they do not want anything else than my WhatsApp and a date. That sometimes I am however happy to concede, despite I am aware that it will have no follow up. I just need to be sure not to arrange anything with students, who just disappear when the waiter comes with the bill. That I find really outrageous, because I cannot really stand men who are not generous and want to split the bill. I can even less tolerate those who do just want to get a free dinner. There are many other ways to obtain that, the best one it is by attend Art Basel, in Basel, Miami or wherever. Just by being invited to the parties, it is a good way to spare on the expenses. Especially when the expenses are not backed by a main institution. When I left the village, I had to learn how to survive a University Campus. The tactics I learn there, helped me to survive when I was not anymore eligible for students benefits and rent a studio apartment in one of the most expensive financial capitals. Also Milan was not cheap, and I cannot figure out how most of the so called professionals with the proletarian Italian-Income can manage to have a decent life. Perhaps they just invest most of their money in few fashionable clothes, carefully hold the same mojito for a whole night and pretend to have spent holidays in some fashionable resorts. That sort of a metropolis has become one of the worst places where to do business. If someone shows up to not to have the money, even after having signed a formal contract, it is almost impossible to claim any right. Luckily even lawyers are in desperate need and they usually work cheap. Especially if you are a gorgeous blondie and you exploit their sexist ego. I am not so dissatisfied by the inadequate leftist ruling class either. They selected the perfect combination of laws to asfissiate the art market and still let some holes open to export the most interesting devaluated artworks. If I were an old widow, who hoped to guarantee her rent with the beautiful paintings she had at home, I would be extremely angry, but I am a young and brilliant foreigner who knows how to exploit these circumstances at my advantage. My contact in Basel shall help me, it is such a shame that I cannot do everything alone and need to split the cake.

Sunday May 30th 2021 On a train from Milan to Lugano

I luckily managed to get the full expenses for the weekend I spent in Zurich, and the one I spent in Geneva. I exceeded my budget far more than expected. Perhaps it was also due to a couple of über art collectors I dined with. I do not like that word über, that Americans find so fashionable, yet I need to follow the trends also with my writings. Perhaps I will end up with a strange relationship with some acquaintance met in an Assouline store. A place that I also detest, I do not like those kind of fashionable art editions printed to allow affluent Chinese and Arab customers to justify some expenses in culture. If I were free to choose, I would wonder around Cologne, looking for the shop of a local printer. Cologne has already developed a couple of international well sounded successes in the matter of art editions. I do not doubt that something more shall come out soon, during the next few years. I am reading here and there about these NFTs art editions, art totally virtualized, to enhance the meaning of art as a unique creation. It is just a piety that I cannot adopt NFTs as pieces of interior design. Unless I shall set up some multimedia installation, a work of art by itself I will also contribute to. Perhaps it is the only way to me to truly express myself while providing a client with my service. Most of the time I need to give a look at expensive objects on 1stDibs, take in consideration the given budget, add to that between 20 and 50%, and make my proposal. The increased budget is just something that the client does not expect, but that makes him, or in most of the cases her, happy. They feel empowered to lavishly spend on something unnecessary, with the additional illusion that they are doing a brilliant investment. By the time they shall be dead, most of the objects they have purchased will just be out fashioned or in such a bad condition that shall hardly be accepted by a self respecting auction house. Just few possess the skill to anticipate the market. I could try to influence them, but they would just be left unsatisfied and I would loose my client, as well as my reputation. The train has moved faster than I expected and I have not been bothered by the borders control. It is time to move on.

Simmaco utilizzò argomenti razionali, non neopagani, a favore della restituzione dell’Altare della Vittoria nel Senato romano.

Ambrogio agì da politico-teologo, ottenne che l’Altare non fosse ripristinato, si adoperò affinché gli Imperatori assumessero mitezza e subordinassero l’azione politica ai dettami della religione maggioritaria, ma non unica.

Alcuni decenni più tardi l’Impero, i cui soldati erano milizie straniere mercenarie, perse del tutto la sua parte occidentale.

Dopo le guerre Greco-Gotiche, i territori spopolati e immiseriti.

Incoronazioni longobarde tra le rovine del Palazzo Imperiale in Milano.

Utilizzo quale chiave di interpretazione definita la similitudine con la diatriba tra Ambrogio e Simmaco.

Ambrogio costituisce polo aspirativo ultramondano, dissocia la scala dei valori dalla realtà storica. Il suo colpire un simbolo, l’Altare della Vittoria, è profezia fattuale della fine dell’Impero.

In questo suo agire, Ambrogio è ideologico.

Cioè, intende conformare la realtà a un assunto a priori.

 Il procedere contrapposto, la “Versione di Simmaco” (Relatio tertia in repetenda ara Victoriae), è intramondano ed empirico, fino a chiarire quali benefici economici potessero derivare alla popolazione di Roma dalla ricostruzione dell’Altare.

La coesione culturale è fattore determinante resilienza nei tempi di crisi.

Essa si genera progressivamente nei periodi di ascesa delle civiltà, fino a costituirne la  continuità narrativa.

Dalla Storia, che notoriamente non si ripete,  propone anzi validi esempi di coesione culturale come spunto antifragile: la fermezza di convincimento concorde offre recupero di posizioni perdute e nuove formulazioni favorevoli.

L’assunto di base è che l’Occidente  sia da tempo in declino.

L’antefatto è l’apertura dei rapporti USA – Repubblica Popolare di Cina (diplomazia del ping-pong, 1972), il corollario è il tracollo del sistema socialista sovietico (1989), la conseguenza è il trasferimento preponderante di potere produttivo-manifatturiero, tecnologico e finanziario non tanto verso l’Asia quanto specificamente verso la RPC.

Insufficiente innovazione (negli ultimi 50 anni la scienza ha prodotto più affinamenti che innovazioni con minori avanzamenti effettivi); stagnazione dei maggiori soggetti finanziari (negli ultimi 20 anni il rinnovamento del grande capitalismo azionario si è progressivamente irrigidito) sono evidenti a meno di non voler tenere le palpebre chiuse. Questo condividendo Peter Thiel.

Ristabilire una coerenza ideologica dell’Occidente è per chi scrive fattore indispensabile.

Se si vuole sopravvivere, essa è da tradurre in politica culturale di massa con intento delineato attraverso le inevitabili variazioni sul tema.

L’operazione culturale di massa ha valenza strategica.

Un esempio favorevole riuscito in un passato recente: la produzione cinematografica di Hollywood, la proliferazione narrativa e la disseminazione museale di opere d’arte contemporanea hanno permesso il primato statunitense nel mondo, hanno creato desiderio di assimilazione e imitazione identitaria.

Un esempio sfavorevole riuscito in un passato meno recente è stata la politica culturale di massa del Nazionalsocialismo.  Essa permise di concentrare una supernazione (i tedeschi propriamente intesi, gli austriaci e tutte le minoranze di lingua tedesca dal Baltico al Mar Nero) e i suoi alleati assimilati verso una impresa superumana  non realizzabile.

Secondo assunto di base è che la politica culturale di massa Occidente soggiacia a un complesso di regole di comunicazione e credenze autoimposto ideologico (i.e. non empirico) assolutizzante (stigmatizzazione del contraddicente).

(Alcune sigle e definizioni correnti: relativismo, mainstream, Woke, cancel culture, LGBTQ).

Se centri decisionali competenti condividono la necessità e approvano almeno nel medio periodo, i passaggi da effettuare sono molteplici.

Esprimo un abbozzo sintetico.

1. organizzare dispositivo di comunicazione classica (stampa, televisione), neomediatica (siti internet e su piattaforme) che ponga attenzione sino al minimo dettaglio per evitare aggressioni destruenti durante la fase di costruzione;
2. predisporre modelli emulativi (generare comportamenti e stili attrattivi);
3. coinvolgere prima le élites, poi le pseudo-élites divulgabili (mediaticamente esposte, con corollari di gestione competente dei social) e solo in seguito la massa;
4. generazione inventiva, non replicativa (il passato sconfitto è dissuasore massimo).

Questo richiede: centri decisionali competenti, coerenza temporale, programmazione adattiva, previsione espansiva frattalica.

La finalità è rigenerativa, quindi includente. La discriminazione è regressiva.

Michel Onfray indica tra i suoi riferimenti Bergson.

Se venisse meno lo slancio vitale, e siamo sulla buona strada, la partita sarebbe persa in partenza.

Quindi, non il richiamo al passato, ma la spinta al rinnovamento consapevole.

Per questo esprimo l’opinione che il liberalismo o persino il conservatorismo libertario non siano strutture di destra, conservatrici.

Dal punto c), cioè dal suggerito ordine di coinvolgimento temporale, astraggo un tema attinente ai simboli.

Non insisto sul potere del simbolo nella politica culturale di massa.

Ricordo il fortissimo valore simbolico dell’arte nel corso storico di tutte le Civiltà, fino alla difficile decifrabilità dell’arte contemporanea.

Quest’ultimo tema, incrociato con il potere (economico, decisionale e semantico) delle élites, conduce direttamente a una lettura straussiana.

Cioè di scrittura (per Leo Strauss, che si riferiva alle élites) esoterica o, da lezione invalsa dei traduttori italiani, di scrittura reticente.

Al riguardo le élites devono comprendere sia la inevitabile transitorietà della loro stessa posizione, sia il persistente netto maggiore potere di indirizzo culturale dell’Occidente. Entrambi gli argomenti sono strettamente connessi.

La costituzione di un valore simbolico richiede un investimento economico e progettuale. Questo comporta responsabilità e scelta.

In osservanza al sistema (ideologico) di regole da alcuni anni adottato e attualmente in vigore, la scelta e il conseguente investimento sono indirizzati su produttori di simboli con caratteristiche omologate (origine e legame diretto con culture oppresse/secondarie; appartenenza a minoranze; espressione di contenuti facili per coinvolgere – sempre ideologicamente – il pubblico vasto, cioè la Massa).

Questo sottomina il sistema stesso di cui le élites beneficiano, prevedibile il ricambio.

Faccio riferimento diretto (omettendo i nomi) a un episodio recente.

Una organizzazione di altissimo livello (élite) organizza il lancio di un artista in vista di un evento tra i maggiori e i più innovativi nell’arte mondiale (ancora una volta élites   culturali-economiche e in più le circostanti pseudo-élites divulgabili).

Il lancio  include la produzione di un filmato nel quale l’artista opera (finge di operare) su uno sfondo estremamente prolungato (circa l’80%) di narrazione simil-documentaristica delle vicissitudini della etnia di origine dell’artista, dalla vita originaria alla oppressione e alla strage.

La qualità del prodotto artistico (finzione di pittura di oggetto e tela già dipinti) è eufemisticamente limitata.

L’investimento è sensibile, a chi scrive risulta un budget di lancio dell’operazione impressionante in rapporto alla qualità delle opere, del filmato in termini di originalità ed editing.

L’obbedienza ideologica è assoluta.

La posizione di Ambrogio.

Percepisco: le élites sponsorizzano uno scenario da lemming versione Walt Disney.

Esse saranno (forse) le ultime a cadere dalla scogliera.

Anche se hanno trincerato la loro posizione dominante, è semplicemente inevitabile che essa muti nel tempo.

Chiudo con la domanda: esiste (ancora)  una consapevolezza nelle élites che decidono?

Vogliano essere reticenti (esoteriche), empiriche, strategiche. Agiscano.

Italy remains the least governable and most unstable member of Nato, not to mention the UE. Despite being one of the original six Founding Members and one of the principal financial supporters of the UE, Italy does not carry the political weight one would expect of the EU’s second major manufacturing Power. A question of leaders and leadership?

Fourteen months ago, despite an electoral law hastily redesigned to encourage multi-party politics as opposed to the bi-party politics of the Berlusconi “era," Italian voters, clearly sending a message to their leaders side-stepped the traditional parties and voted resoundingly for two up-starts known as the M5S and Lega parties. These two parties subsequently formed the first two-party coalition government in the history of the Republic. Known as the “Government for Change," that government was put into sudden-death overtime by Matteo Salvini, leader of the Lega on August 8, 2019. 

After a little more than one year, Italians stand aghast as Italy’s leaders once again seem intent on playing “craps” with the lives of their fellow citizens. Naturally, for the good of all Italians, but most of all for the good of the Country’s numerous and highly paid bureaucrats and, of course, for the thousands of MPs and politicians required to represent a shrinking Italian electorate now down to about 50 million people.

No one on the right or left of the political spectrum can deny Italy needs “a better mouse trap”. In the age of real-time communications, smart phones, computers and broad-band internet connections, Italy needs a political machinery that    is democratic, quick to decide and cost effective.

The present Constitution and Institutions do not seem to guarantee any of the above. What to do?

1. Reduce the number of MPs. It makes little sense for Italians to pay for 1000 legislators when half would be more than enough to adequately represent Italy’s decreasing eligible voter population of some 50 million. An example? Italian Representatives represent 80,000 people each compared with 733,000 people each by their American counterparts. Italian Senators, which are less than half in number, represent 200,000 people each. However, in the US Senators represent the individual States and no comparisons are possible.
2. Cut the outrageously high cost of Italian politics. Italian MPs earn more than € 190,000.00 per year. They are the highest paid politicians in Europe or the Americas. The cost of running Italy’s Quirinal Palace (where Pres. Mattarella and retinue live and work) is five times that of Buckingham Palace and twice that of the White House! For most Italians, politicians are not worth the money they get, especially in these times of diminishing returns. Something must be done to stop the gouging of taxpayers.
3. Encourage the formation of a manageable two / three party system by rethinking voter districts, raising thresholds for winning seats in parliament and adopting a first-past the-post majority electoral system. The error is believing that more parties in Parliament equals more democracy. In the Italian case the proliferation of parties has brought nothing but confusion and hegemony often by parties representing but a majority only marginally superior to their own.
4. Neutralize the Italian Magistrature’s bid for political power by constitutional amendment where possible and/or by making the Magistratura accessible to lawyers and Notaries in private practice; the present closed system does nobody any good; civil servants and bureaucrats become more responsive to the needs of society when challenged by competition from the private sector.  

All systems are self-preserving and naturally Italian politicians believe the answer lies not in the above suggestions but in going even more proportional (in efforts to stop the “populist right” from spoiling their well-remunerated fun). For the good of Italy and to make sure it is “never again” for the likes of Salvini.

Come Tuesday, August 27, should Mattarella not send everybody to the polls sometime this fall, Italians risk falling back into the hands of the old cold-war leadership that nearly bankrupted the Country. If that were allowed to happen, self-determination could become the North’s only option. Caveat emptor!

Molti utenti whatsapp si saranno accorti che da qualche tempo il celebre programma di istant messaging non reca più la scritta “From Facebook” ma bensì “From Meta”. Le male lingue hanno insinuato che questo cambiamento è dovuto al recente scandalo - il secondo per gravità dopo quello di Cambridge Analytica – emerso dalle dichiarazioni della whistleblower Frances Haugen riguardo diverse pratiche dannose di cui Facebook era consapevole e, di conseguenza, ad un tentativo da parte della società di rilanciare la propria immagine uscita acciaccata dai “facebook pappers”.
Così, dopo mesi di anticipazioni, smentite e retroscena, è arrivato l’annuncio ufficiale: il “gruppo Facebook” cambierà nome e si chiamerà “Meta” che in greco vuol dire oltre e l’intenzione (a parole) di business model dall’azienda di Menlo Park  fin qui seguito è quella di andare “oltre” l’utilizzo di app  tra loro interconnesse come Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Whatsapp, ecc.
Questo non vuol dire che le nostre app che tutti i giorni guardiamo e utilizziamo cambieranno nome, Facebook continuerà a chiamarsi Facebook, Whatsapp con il suo nome e così tutte le altre.
No, l’idea di Zuckerberg & Co. È quella di creare una nuova realtà virtuale, totalmente immersiva che ci dovrebbe accompagnare nella vita di tutti i giorni dal lavoro alla socialità.

Quella proposta da Zuckerberg non è una novità nel mondo dell’informatica né tanto meno dell’intrattenimento.
L’idea di una realtà immersiva si può far risalire alla metà del secolo scorso, quando un giovane cineasta, Mort Heiling vide a Brodway il film “This is Cinerama” proiettato su schermo gigante e ricurvo, che prende il nome appunto di Cinerama.
Da quell’esperienza Heiling ebbe l’idea di creare un dispositivo che permetteva a chi lo utilizzava di provare vere sensazioni e che chiamò “Sensorama”. Si trattava di una cabina in grado di ospitare una persona e che combinava effetti tridimensionali tramite un visore stereoscopico sul modello del View-Master ¹, suono stereofonico, vibrazioni per mezzo di un manubrio che veniva afferrato e soffi di profumi. Quello che sensorama permetteva di fare era di creare nello spettatore un’esperienza il più realistica possibile di una corsa in un mercato dei fiori, su di una spiaggia e sulle strade di Brooklyn. Brevettato nel 1962 non ebbe successo tra le grandi case cinamatografiche e divenne famosa come macchina a gettoni nei luna park.
Qualche anno dopo (1965) un giovane ingegnere di nome Ivan Sutherlan ebbe l’idea che si potessero utilizzare i computer per il lavoro di progettazione; secondo Sutherlan un monitor collegato ad un computer offriva la possibilità di acquisire familiarità con concetti impossibili da realizzare nel mondo reale. Con quest’idea nel 1968, mentre era ancora professore all’università di Harvard, insieme ad alcuni suoi studenti tra i quali Bob Sproull, Quintin Foster, Danny Cohen creò il primo casco per la realtà virtuale.
Ma i mondi virtuali non devono solo essere percepiti ma c’è bisogno che si possa interagire con loro, così nel 1970 Myron Krueger, pioniere della computer art, interessandosi “agli ambienti sensibili controllati dal computer” coniò il termine realtà artificiale. Secondo Krueger la tastiera teneva lontani tanti utenti nell’accostarsi al computer per creare espressioni artistiche e così ideo “Videoplace”: un sistema  composto da una telecamera controllata da un computer e da un grande schermo. Quando un utente si metteva davanti alla telecamera la sua immagine veniva catturata dal computer, proiettata sullo schermo e combinata con le immagini ivi presenti. L’immagine della persona era rappresentata come una silhouette e interagiva con gli oggetti presenti sullo schermo spingendoli, afferrandoli, alzandoli, ecc.
Il progetto di Krueger morì perché non ottenne finanziamenti per il suo sviluppo mentre nello stesso periodo il Governo Federale degli Stati Uniti investiva ingenti somme nello sviluppo della tecnologia “Moviemap” del MIT che consentiva all’utente di muoversi attraverso una versione video di Aspen toccando semplicemente alcune parti dello schermo. Da lì, nel 1981, nacque il progetto “SuperCockpit” dell’aereonautica militare sotto la direzione di Tom Furnes: una finta cabina di pilotaggio che utilizzava alcuni computer e un casco virtuale per addestrare i piloti al combattimento.
Il SuperCockpit aveva però costi altissimi e la Nasa nel 1990 sviluppò “VIEW” (Virtual Interface Environment Workstation), il primo sistema a combinare grafica computerizzata, immagini video, riconoscimento vocale, un casco per la realtà virtuale ed un guanto tattile (inventato nel 1982 da Tom Zimmermann e Jaron Lainer quando lavoravano alla Atari).
L’idea della Nasa di utilizzare tecnologie già presenti e relativamente economiche per creare simulazioni realistiche per le future missioni spaziali fece capire che era possibile creare une realtà artificiale senza dover investire milioni di dollari.
Gli inizi degli anni ’90 videro un fiorire di idee per la realizzazione di realtà virtuale con progetti fai da te come gli schemi per poter collegare il “Power Golve”² della mattel (creato per la piattaforma videoludica della Nintendo) ad un normale computer tramite porta parallela³ nonché  i relativi codici per programmarlo tramite linguaggio C, la nascita di diversi software a pagamento o freeware per la creazione di mondi ed in fine, la commercializzazione dei primi caschi di realtà immersiva a prezzi relativamente bassi ( qualche centinaia di migliaia di lire).
Qualche anno più tardi le prime webcam che venivano commercializzate spesso erano accompagnate da programmi che permettevano (come nel caso della webcam LG LPCU30) di interagire con immagini generate al computer come nel videoplace di Krueger.

Nella letteratura fantascientifica l’idea di mondi virtuali ha preso piede, soprattutto nella cultura Cyber Punk in romanzi come “Neuromante” o “Aidoru” di William Gibson dove il reale ed il virtuale si fondono in un’unica realtà soggettiva. Ed è proprio dalla cultura Cyber Punk che nasce il termine “Metaverso” utilizzato da Zuckerberg per la sua nuova creatura, in particolare dal romanzo “Snow Crash” del 1992 di Neal Stephenson. Nella cultura mainstream, l’idea di un mondo virtuale dove le persone interagiscono lo si trova in film come “Il 13° piano” tratto dal romanzo “Simulacron 3” di Galouye o la trilogia di “Matrix” (sempre ispirata dallo stesso romanzo).
Sulla scia di questi successi cinematografici, dell’interesse per la realtà virtuale, la massificazione di internet, nonché la nascita dei primi social network, nel 2003 nasce “Second Life”: un mondo virtuale dove gli utenti (chiamati anche residenti) accedono al mondo virtuale attraverso un loro avatar e dove possono muoversi liberamente, interagire con altri utenti e acquistare beni e servizi virtuali o reali pagando con tanto di moneta virtuale convertibile in dollari o euro.
Dopo un inizio un po’ difficile (le risorse chieste ai computer erano impegnative ed inoltre in Italia le connessioni internet erano ancora lente), Second Live ha raggiunto il massimo di utenti nel 2013 con un milione di abbonati per poi assestarsi tra gli 800.000 ed i 900.000. Negli ultimi anni diverse piattaforme sono nate, soprattutto a livello video ludico, per permettere agli utenti di interagire con mondi virtuali, come “Minecraft”, “Fortnite” o “The Sandbox” molto simile al metaverso di Meta.

Cosa fa allora pensare a “Meta” che il suo “Metaverso” sia diverso da tutte le realtà già presenti?
Innanzi tutto bisogna considerare che il metaverso farà largo delle tecnologie di realtà virtuale sviluppate negli ultimi anni come i visori sitle Hololens alle quali affiancherà hardware sviluppato autonomamente già in progettazione (ad esempio i guanti tattili). In aggiunta a ciò Facebook/Meta può vantare un vasto background di utenza e una vasta esperienza nel coinvolgere gli internauti a diventare sempre più dipendenti dai propri prodotti.  Un’altra freccia all’arco di Zuckerberg è l’idea di presentare il metaverso come un mondo alternativo che però interagirà con quello reale e non sarà solamente un luogo di svago o di fuga, ma una piattaforma per poter anche lavorare, creare riunioni virtuali, lezioni virtuali il tutto tramite un avatar.
Certo la concorrenza non mancherà visto che Microsoft, a pochi giorni dall’annuncio di Meta ha presentato il suo metaverso durante Ignite 2021 (la principale conferenza Microsoft dedicata al mondo Enterprise) al quale si potrà accedere tramite la piattaforma Microsoft Mesh per Teams e che farà uso di visori a realtà aumentata. Come per il metaverso di Menlo Park anche quello di Redmond punta soprattutto agli utenti che professionisti che lavorano e lavoreranno (si presume in un futuro prossimo sempre di più) in smartworking.

Ma abbiamo davvero bisogno di un metaverso?
A usufruire della nascita dei metaversi saranno principalmente le aziende produttrici di accessori per realtà aumentata o virtuale che ad oggi hanno avuto un mercato molto limitato visto il costo dell’hardware e i settori di applicazioni molto di nicchia, mentre per l’utente consumer, invece, il vantaggio sarà un graduale abbassamento del prezzo del sopracitato hardware.
Come tutte le tecnologie anche il metaverso può essere sia un bene che un male, dipende dagli usi che ne verranno fatti e dalla consapevolezza e maturità degli utenti.
Purtroppo abbiamo visto come, negli ultimi 15-20 anni internet, che è una tecnologia che permette di ampliare le proprie conoscenze e migliorare la vita dei singoli utenti, sia diventato monopolio di grandi multinazionali e ricettacolo di pseudo-verità e futili intrattenimenti, quando non anche per creare disinformazione (non ultimi i famosi Facebook pappers).
Il metaverso è la naturale evoluzione dell’internet che conosciamo, ci vorranno anni per vederlo sviluppato alla massima potenza, per adesso abbiamo solo aziende come Microsoft, Roblox, Epic Games, Tencent, Alibaba e ByteDance che stanno investendo ma quello che sarà non è ancora definito; saremo noi, come è accaduto con lo sviluppo di internet, che decideremo cosa nascerà, facendo scelte che a noi sembreranno insignificanti ma che le grandi multinazionali usano per fare soldi. Lo scandalo Facebook, dove venivano evidenziati i post che creavano il maggior numero di interazioni al solo scopo di creare traffico, indipendentemente dalla verità o meno dei post stessi, ne è un esempio. Quindi quando inizieremo ad usare il metaverso, stavolta, ricordiamoci fin dall’inizio che saremo noi a creare il nostro futuro mondo virutale. Sarà diverso il metaverso o diventerà l’ennesimo spazio dove si rifugeranno le persone per scappare alla realtà? A noi la scelta!

BIBLIOIGRAFIA
Linda Jacobson, “Realtà Virtuale con il personal Computer”, Apogeo, 1994.
Ron Wodaski e Donna Brown, “Realtà virtuale attualità e futuro”, Tecniche Nuove, 1995
https://www.nasa.gov/ames/spinoff/new_continent_of_ideas/
https://news.microsoft.com/it-it/2021/11/02/il-microsoft-cloud-protagonista-a-ignite-2021-metaverso-ai-e-iperconnettivita-in-un-mondo-ibrido/

¹ View-Master è stato un sistema di visione stereoscopica inventato da William Gruber e commercializzato per prima dalla Sawyer's nel 1938. Il sistema comprende: un visore stereoscopico, dischetti montanti 7 coppie di diapositive stereo, proiettori, fotocamere (Personal e MKII) e altri dispositivi per la visione o la ripresa di immagini stereoscopiche.
² Il Power Glove è un controller nato per il NES del 1989. Fu sviluppato dalla Mattel, ma il progetto si ispirò a un’invenzione di Tomm Zimmerman, che realizzò una periferica per l’interfacciamento a gesti manuali basata su un guanto cablato a fibre ottiche. L’idea di Zimmerman venne addirittura finanziata dalla NASA. La Mattel sviluppò questa periferica ma utilizzando tecnologie molto meno recenti, per rendere il Power Glove economico e più robusto.
³ L’interfaccia per collegare il power glove al PC tramite interfaccia parallela venne sviluppata da Mark Pflaging

E’ tempo per il capitale di valutare investimenti sulla biocibernetica o non ancora, in particolare su endo-protesi di potenziamento del cervello? L’avvento di un’Età della “biocibernazione” – nome creato da chi scrive negli anni ’80 - è stato profetizzato già da tempo. Nel 2000 Bill Joe, direttore scientifico di Sun Microsystems, scrisse: nel 2030 le tecnologie dell’informazione, bio e nano si fonderanno generando una speciazione post-umana. Ancor prima Kurzweil lanciò programmi di potenziamento tecnologico delle facoltà umane e di discontinuità evoluzionistica: la “singolarità”. Ma le aziende pronte a mettere sul mercato biochip cerebrali rinunciarono per timore di dissensi che avrebbero compromesso la capitalizzazione iniziale in Borsa. Così come Google interruppe, per problemi di vulnerabilità legale in materia di privacy, la vendita di occhiali costruiti come protesi di potenziamento delle funzioni visive-informative del cervello. L’intento dichiarato da Musk di costruire chip da impiantare nel cervello segnala che ora i tempi sono maturi?
Il potenziale tecnologico c’è. Nei sistemi autoritari la ricerca è più avanzata per l’assenza di problemi di consenso, ma è scarsa la vera libertà di impresa. L’innovazione, infatti, richiede o la guerra o una relazione amplificante tra libertà, tecnologia e capitale e in questi la prima non c’è. Nelle democrazie c’è, ma manca il consenso a causa del conflitto tra tecnica e morale. Chi scrive invocò un gizmo nella testa quando quattordicenne nel 1965 giocava a scacchi ad occhi bendati nel Caffè San Marco di Trieste, all’ombra della più grande sinagoga d’Europa. I limiti del cervello umano, forzati, erano evidenti e frustranti. Nell’evoluzione, infatti, ha avuto successo, finora, la cooperazione tra individui e non il supercervello illimitato. Tuttavia, la complessità crescente dei compiti cognitivi ha bisogno di un secondo cervello ausiliario, un “metagolem”. Ma ciò genera orrore nei più. A meno che non sia capace di salvare, disse allo scrivente un vecchio rabbi di passaggio. Tale battuta mostra la via: trasformazioni della configurazione umana naturale sono accettabili solo se chiaramente salvatrici. Per esempio, controllo di Alzheimer e Parkinson, ripristino di vista e udito, autoriparazioni in generale. In sintesi, si può ipotizzare che i biochip cerebrali possano ottenere consenso solo se chiaramente finalizzati a salvazioni mediche. A tale condizione l’investimento è valutabile in un orizzonte di 10-15 anni. Aperta questa porta poi, come accade da secoli, la morale si adeguerà alla tecnica.

To the early and less enduring snow of late autumn, that year followed abundant precipitations that soon covered with a white mantle the mountains around Munich. It could have been the landscape printed on a Christmas card or the atmosphere depicted by Thomas Mann in many of his novels. Perhaps even Hitler would have taken inspiration for a watercolour. It could have for sure promoted the sale of the frame, although soon to be replaced with some work of better quality. I was getting stressed on the workplace, because of the requests I received by the far too many stakeholders I had interaction with. By the tone and the feasibility of the targets, they also reminded me of Hitler, while shouting unintelligible orders to his generals. They also had the tune of a DDR hymn, so deeply impregnated by optimistic propaganda. We will complete the plan within the next five days, employing a team of four people, two of which on vacation and the other two new hires who have not already received their laptops. Of course I had to be stressed, but I had also to consider that I was paid because of my well renown soft skills, i.e. negotiation and stress management. I actually felt quite unprepared with both of them, but that was not what I wrote on my resumée under the direct supervision of my career advisor. On a wednesday night, after having got home at 1 a.m. because of an extenuating meeting with the whole management of my area, I decided to break the piggy bank and take part to a guided tour on the snowshoes. The local section of the DAV, the German Alpine Club, organized many excursions during the week ends. Unfortunately most of trips were often cancelled due to the most disparate reasons. It was so frustrating that I had already abandoned the idea to become a proficient mountaineer. I had however to try. My good friend Cristoph was away for a long mission related to his job and I also had enough to spend most of my time reading on the web edition of the local newspapers alarming reports about the presence of radical Islam in Bavaria. If I had been a young Pioneer in the DDR times, my supervisors would have for sure approved
such a proof of bravery defying the decadent entertainment of the Western countries. Actually, without a good income, I would have ever hardly been available to buy the necessary equipment and the efficiency of the Warsaw Pact would have made the roads to the mountains quite impracticable if not for an highly sophisticated military vehicle. Perhaps available only to the NATO. I did not want to take care of the opinion of high paid professionals, but just to stay away from the town for a short while. I prepared my backpack carefully, not to be stuck in an unknown place without the essential equipment. Relying on technology, it was not necessary to carry a voluminous luggage. The iPad is good enough to contain all the entertainment I need for several years. While selecting the food and handling a pocket of dried fruit, I realised how such a tendency to condense all the necessary resources for survival has started centuries ago. A long road to innovation, should add the commentary of a boring video on the human evolution. I also felt that my thought lack of ingenuousness. Perhaps I was not reading intensively enough and I was looking for new ideas. Like those you easily pick up from the best renowned magazines and, by quoting, you can easily assert to belong to a restricted elite of intellectuals. I also doubted whether I should acquire my information from alternative resources. The only conclusion was to adhere to any plot theory available on the web. I then realized how honest intellectuals should have felt under the DDR. The choice to believe to the carefully manipulated scientific publications of the University of Lipsia or the option to nourish your brain with not verified notions, partially developed by the mind of an uneducated political prisoner. For the following two days, in the comfort of a wooden building, immersed in a white world, I made a truce with my troubles.